就这样,2019年过去了,2020年已经到来。随着行业聚焦于未来,去年的许多营销发展都变得无足轻重。
Just like that, 2019 is over and 2020 is underway. Many of last year’s marketing developments fade into insignificance as the industry focuses on the future.

在瞬息万变的行销世界,尤其是社交媒体领域,对未来的预测非常重要。想想我们的行业在过去12个月里的发展情况,抖音的成长,Facebook转型为私密平台,少数网红丑闻以及…有人玩" Ok, Boomer "的梗了吗?
Future gazing is important in the fast-moving world of marketing and in particular, social media; consider how much our industry has evolved in the last 12 months. The growth of TikTok, Facebook’s pivot to privacy, a handful of high-profile influencer scandals and…. did anyone say 'Ok Boomer'?

在这里,我们的全球领导团队分享了他们对2020年市场营销和社交媒体发展趋势的看法。
Here, in the first part of a two-post series (15 offices are a lot to fit in!), our global leadership team share their thoughts on the trends that will shape marketing, and social media, in 2020.

Benjamin Arnold, Managing Director, New York
2020:调整的一年
2020: The year to shake shit up

社交正变得越来越同质化。品牌正在使用同样的最佳实践,引用同样的网红策略,创造同样类型的内容。甚至连社交平台也在不断地复制彼此的特性,并逐渐融合。审美疲劳和对“暗社交”(无法追根溯源的社交分享)的偏好表明这值得引起关注。同时,抖音迅速进入主流市场表明,人们渴求新奇,迫切需要一个不同寻常、又不用多加润色的自我表达平台。在2019年,一些品牌意识到了这一新的现实:百事、阿迪达斯、TripAdvisor(猫途鹰)和Old Navy(老海军)承认,他们为了建立自己的品牌,在数字营销上进行了过度投资。这并不意味着业绩不再重要。但这确实解决了所有品牌目前面临的挑战:如何在周围的社交世界变得同质化的情况下脱颖而出,提供真正的价值和差异化内容。一直用同一套解决方案?得了吧。重新设想一下那套公式化的流程。废弃旧的内容日程表模式,了解观众真正想要的是什么,然后用大胆、新颖、有创意的方式传达出来。这种勇敢的社交思维需要成为2010年一切的核心。

Social is becoming increasingly homogenous. Brands are creating the same type of content, using the same best practices, referencing the same influencer playbooks. Even the platforms continue to replicate each other’s features and converge. Feed fatigue and preference for dark social suggests there’s cause for concern, while TikTok’s explosion into the mainstream shows people are crying out for novelty, for a less generic, less polished forum for self-expression. In 2019, several brands recognized this new reality: Pepsi, Adidas, TripAdvisor and Old Navy admitted they over-invested in the performance side of digital at the expense of building their brands. This doesn’t mean performance is no longer important. But it does address a challenge all brands are now facing: How to stand apart, provide real value and differentiation as the social world around them becomes homogeneous. One solution? Shake shit up. Reimagine that formulaic playbook. Scrap the same old content calendar format. Understand what audiences really want, then deliver that in bold, original and creative ways. It’s this brave social thinking which needs to be the heart of everything next year.

Coby Shuman, Managing Director, Toronto
净化影响力
Cleansing Influence

2019年是网红营销冷嘲热讽的转折点。人们现在可以辨别出哪些是真实的影响力和哪些只是虚假的尝试。2020年将标志着以受众为导向的影响力净化的加速。更多的用户将取消关注、点踩并差评那些延续“网红”刻板印象的内容创作者。我们在《2020年展望未来报告》(2020 Think Forward Report)中强调的一个关键趋势是,人们对低质量内容日益强烈的抵触并不会推翻不断飙升的网红经济,但会引发广泛的转变。品牌将以更新的社交策略来巩固真实感,强化他们的网红名单。那些真正努力工作以增加价值并与他们所在的圈子建立联系的人将赢得胜利。相反,只是粉丝基数大的网红和所谓的“种草达人”将会在那些曾经容易轻信的用户觉悟后被淘汰。

2019 saw a tipping point in influencer marketing cynicism. People can now decipher those authentically influencing from those making contrived attempts; 2020 will mark the acceleration of an audience-driven influence cleanse. More users will unfollow, unlike and troll content creators who perpetuate the influencer stereotype. This growing backlash against bad influence, a key trend we highlighted in our 2020 Think Forward Report, won’t overthrow the soaring influencer economy, but it will ignite a widespread shift. Brands will respond to authenticity pressures with refreshed social strategies that consolidate their influencer roster. Personalities who genuinely work hard to add value and connect with their engaged communities will win. Conversely, reach-based macro-influencers and easy-to-buy aspiring ones will be washed from the consciousness of people who were once gullible enough to stop scrolling. 

Alberto Pachano, Managing Director, Madrid
“无赞”趋势
The NO LIKE momentum 

近年来,“赞”的价值一直在下降。由于精巧的算法和不断增加的虚假参与,人们对“赞”的信任已经降低。随着Instagram在全球范围内测试隐藏点赞数,它已经不再是过去的那个衡量标准了。据说,缺少点赞数会让人们对自己的内容不那么在意,也会减少被反对的风险,因此发贴的压力也就更小(这是个好消息),这可能会鼓励更多内容的呈现。用户浏览时间长显然有利于平台,尤其是平台在出售广告位的时候。现在不太清楚的是,“网红们”将如何体现自己的影响力和粉丝参与度,这也是Instagram正在做的事情。各大品牌喜欢看到这些心形图案和竖起的大拇指迅速增长,这通常就是公开展示他们工作成果的GRP。所以,看看将来会如何调整,以及这如何在他们的内容中体现应该会挺有趣的。品牌会降低自我意识吗?更少的润色?更加自然…更加社交?!2020年可能会有答案。

‘Likes’ have been losing their value in recent years. With clever algorithms and growing fakeability of engagement, trust in the Like has diminished. And with Instagram testing hidden Likes globally, it’s no longer the metric it used to be. A lack of Likes is said to make people less self-conscious of their content and the risk of disapproval, therefore there's less pressure on posters (good news), possibly leading to more content. People spending more time is clearly good for a platform, especially when selling ad space. What’s less clear is how influencers are going to demonstrate reach and engagement; something Instagram is ‘working on’. Brands love to see those hearts and thumbs-up racking up quickly; it’s often their GRP, a public announcement of their work. So, it will be interesting to see the adjustment and how this is portrayed in their content. Will brands become less self-conscious? Less polished? More spontaneous… more social?! 2020 may have the answers. 

Jim Coleman, CEO, London
社交自律
Social Self Care 

我们与科技和个人设备的关系正变得越来越复杂。不能过度依赖它们,当然也不能没有他们。“数字戒瘾”可能是一个短期的解决方案,但从长远来看,我们需要更好的解决方案来应对数字生活的压力。社交自律是我们在《2020年展望未来报告》中深入报道的趋势之一——随着人们对心理健康意识的增强,他们开始对数字消费采取更慎重的方式。这得到了社交媒体平台和受众的支持。平台正在寻求成为更健康的地方,花时间关注工具和举措;督促受众开始自我规范使用社交的方式。品牌也将有机会参与其中,无论是去鼓励粉丝和关注者养成更健康的习惯,还是去创造一种源于善意的文化。

Our relationship with technology and personal devices is growing increasingly complex. Can’t live with them, certainly can’t live without them. A digital detox may be a short-term answer but, in the long-term, we need better solutions to manage the overwhelm of our digital lives. Social Self Care is one of the trends we covered in-depth in our 2020 Think Forward Report - in the wake of increased mental health awareness, people are starting to take a more measured approach to digital consumption. This is being championed by social media platforms and people alike. Platforms are looking to become healthier places to spend time with well-being focused tools and initiatives; communities are beginning to self-regulate how they use social. Brands will have the opportunity to get involved as well, whether it’s in encouraging healthier habits amongst fans and followers, to creating a culture rooted firmly in kindness. 

Sandrine Plasseraud, CEO and Founder, Paris
社交商务的爆炸式增长
The explosion of social commerce

自从社交媒体成为主流以来,平台每年都会推出一项商务功能。Facebook在10年前率先使用了“F-Commerce”,允许品牌创建在线商店,但他们只是在Facebook上重建了他们的电子商务体验,没有增加任何价值,没什么效果。时至今日: Instagram上充斥着“可购物的帖子”,让消费者很容易地识别和购买产品。交易既可以在应用程序内完成(通过“Instagram Checkout”功能),也可以在商家的在线商店完成。在Pinterest上,“Shop the Look”允许人们直接从时尚和室内装饰的帖子上搜索并购买产品。数字原生垂直品牌(DNVB)的出现是社交电商产品激增的原因。DNVB是直接面向消费者的模式,除了在网上销售外别无它法。如今的消费者接受并拥抱社交电商,因此,它迫使我们不断发展。

Every year since social media became mainstream, platforms have introduced a commerce functionality. Facebook pioneered ‘F-Commerce’ a decade ago, allowing brands to create online stores, but they were just re-creating their e-commerce experience on Facebook without adding any value. It didn't work. Fast forward to today: the Instagram feed is rife with ‘shoppable posts’, allowing consumers to easily identify and purchase products. Transactions can be made both in-app (via the ‘Instagram Checkout’ feature) and from merchants’ online stores. On Pinterest, ‘Shop the Look’ allows people to search and buy products directly from fashion and interior decoration pins. The arrival of Digital Native Vertical Brands (DNVB) is what has proliferated social commerce offerings. The DNVB is created in direct-to-consumer mode, with no other choice than to sell online. As such, it’s forced the evolution of our behavior, with consumers now accepting and embracing social commerce.

Gabriele CucinellaStefano Maggi and Ottavio Nava, Co-Founders and CEOs, Milan and Madrid
社交和客户之旅:环游世界
Social and customer journey: what goes around comes around

客户旅程的发展情况是随着我们的线上行为而不断展开的。这正在变成一个明确的循环:我们受到影响,我们参与其中,我们成为目标受众,然后我们购买。社交媒体正在承担起越来越重要的角色,从而使其形成一个可以满足自身需求的循环:完整的客户旅程。具体情况如下。第1步:广泛定位。品牌划分目标受众,并开始与广泛而精确的目标进行互动。第2步:通过微小的互动(例如点赞、评论、视频等)“温暖公众”。第3步:详细定位(勘探)。把这些小互动与对应的兴趣标识相连接,绑定后会产生一系列更加温暖,更小众的受众圈子。第4步:深入行动:人们随时准备接触那些使他们采取更复杂行动的内容(例如购买)。我们实现这些的工具是一种内容分配方法。过去,此操作是在下游执行的,现在已成为流程的指导要素。创造力成为推动行动的诱发因素,付费媒体使我们能够建立受众群体并在整个旅程中吸引客户。

The customer journey is evolving, shaped by our behavior online. It’s becoming definitively circular; we are influenced, we are involved, we are targeted, and we buy. Social media is able to fill an increasingly totalizing role, creating a loop that feeds itself: The Full Customer Journey. Here’s how it happens. Step 1. broad targeting; brands identify and start interacting with wide and precise audiences. Step 2. “warm the public” via light actions (like, comment, video, etc.). Step 3. detailed targeting (prospecting); light actions correspond to signs of interest, coded to create a series of warmer, smaller audiences. Step 4: deep actions: people are ready to be exposed to content that drives them to take more complex action, like a purchase. Our tools to do this are a content distribution approach; in the past, this was implemented downstream, now it’s the guiding element in the process. Creativity becomes the trigger to drive the action and paid media allows us to build audiences and drive the customer through the journey. 

Roberto Collazos Garcia, Managing Director, Munich and Berlin
打破滤镜泡沫
Bursting the filter bubble

互联网和社交媒体使我们能够克服人与人之间的一些社会障碍和地域限制,从而平衡我们对世界的看法。但尽管数以百万计的人正在使用这些在线平台扩大视野,许多人却反其道而行之,创建了“ Daily Me”-一个专门为自己的利益量身定制的滤镜泡沫。今年,我希望看到更多的品牌做出自己的贡献,打破这一周期,和来自世界各地的人们一起,帮助他们了解彼此的文化,探索有价值的新观点和机会。品牌有机会吸纳多元化的、有意义的观点,并认可多元化能够为他们及整个大环境带来的影响。

The internet, and social media, allow us to overcome some of the social and geographical barriers between people, giving us a more balanced view of the world. However - although millions of people are using these online platforms to expand their horizons, many are doing the opposite, creating a 'Daily Me' - a filter bubble that is specifically tailored to their own interests. This year, I'd like to see more brands doing their part to break this cycle, to connect people from all over the world; helping them learn about one another's cultures, to explore valuable new perspectives and opportunities. Brands have the opportunity to promote diverse, meaningful opinions and embrace what diversity can do for them and their environment.